I’ve made no secret in the past of how my predicted Town lineups are often wide of the mark. Despite my best efforts it’s not easy to know what Carlos is thinking when it comes to team selection. However, for tonight’s game I genuinely think I might be able to accurately predict the whole starting eleven.
In fairness, this is more due to the fact we’ve only got around eleven experienced players in the squad at the moment and Carlos has shown a reluctance to play youngsters from the academy when there’s a first team player available, regardless of their form.
So here’s who I think we’ll see playing for Town tonight.
Goalkeeper: Schofield
Couldn’t be blamed for Scott Malone’s curling finish last Wednesday. No Town fan expected Malone to be capable of such an assured finish after his largely hapless spell at Town in our first Premier League season (the pinnacle of which was when he managed to kick the ball into his own face). The departure of Hamer means that we’ve no decent competition in this area of the field so it’s bound to be Schofield tonight. Pereira is technically there as backup but I think we’ll only see him if Schofield picks up an injury. An experienced reserve keeper will hopefully be on the shopping list for the summer.
Defence: Pipa, Keogh, Sarr, Toffolo
I don’t think any players came out of the Millwall game with much credit but Richard Keogh was probably the least bad of the Town lineup and showed that he could come straight in and do a job for us. He’s not going to win many foot races with pacey forwards but he looks solid, composed on the ball and is a vocal presence at the back which helps keep things organised.
The other three of the back four are all settled and established members of the squad. It seems like our opponents have clocked on to the danger of our fullbacks present and often look to stifle them and pin them back. So the challenge now is to find ways for them to impact the game despite being singled out. Pipa tends to drift inside more these days to lose his marker and Toffolo tries to push even further forward, but neither is quite as effective as they were a few months ago.
Naby Sarr has become a mainstay of our defence and given the lack of height elsewhere, it’s very useful to have at least one player capable of dominating in the air. I’d like to see him being a bit more inventive with the ball when he’s in possession tonight. Against Millwall he was too often stuck in possession and played a safe ball across the back line rather than progressing the play up field. The lack of options in front of him was clearly a problem but it would be nice to see him trying to find players in space.
Midfield: Vallejo, O’Brien, Bacuna
Hogg’s absence is a big miss despite Vallejo looking OK since he came in. The Spaniards is fine as a backup but doesn’t have the snarling, snapping qualities of Hogg and we lose a bit of bite in midfield as a result. It’s still early days for Vallejo though and I expect he’ll get better with more games.
O’Brien and Bacuna were both incapable of finding a way to open up Millwall’s dogged defence last week (aside from O’Brien’s penetrating run that led to the penalty). Both are in a bit of a slump at the moment and could do with a good game to boost their confidence.
Duane Holmes won’t play tonight but his arrival may give a bit of a boot up the backside to the rest of the midfield as he’ll provide competition for spaces. If Bacuna or O’Brien aren’t able to offer creativity and threat from midfield then it’s likely they’ll make way for Holmes to come straight into the team.
Forwards: Mbenza, Campbell, Aarons
Mbenza hasn’t looked quite as good since Koroma’s injury, possibly because he’s had too much creative responsibility on his shoulders. But now Aarons is here we should be able to play the usual 4-3-3 shape and have wingers on both sides that can cause problems. Carlos confirmed that Mbenza has been in training this week and will be fit to play. I’m not convinced this means he’s 100% fit but the lack of other options means he’s worth starting even if he’s only 75% fit.
Fraizer Campbell is now back to being the only available first team striker after Danny Ward’s brief return to the squad was cut short by a calf strain. I wonder if at some point either Ward or the club might start to think that these injuries are more than bad luck and possibly an indicator that Ward’s body isn’t up to the rigours of Carlosball and he may have a better chance of staying fit with a different team. Despite being many years older than Ward, Campbell is looking as fit as a fiddle and has improved his ability to play 90 minutes this season (last season Danny Cowley tended to only give him an hour before subbing him).
It’s a shame that our lack of fit players has led to Aarons being chucked straight into the starting lineup rather than eased in gently but there are promising signs coming from him. It’s obvious he’s still picking up the style of play and learning the kind of runs his teammates make but he looks pretty good when he gets the ball at his feet. The rustiness will soon lift and I’m optimistic that he can provide us with some genuine threat down the left flank.
Prediction for the game: A scrappy draw
Last Wednesday’s defeat to Millwall was potentially the worst performance of the season from Town and the tepid second half was a cause for concern. It would be great to see a reaction from them tonight at Bristol but it’s hard to imagine a team with only one change to the lineup performing vastly differently.
I’d settle for a hard fought and scrappy draw against Bristol. While they are in their own poor run of form at the moment, their squad is full of experienced, quality players and they have options on their bench to change things that we simply don’t currently have.
I’ll predict that we’ll get a 1-1 draw as we seem capable of getting goals in most games one way or another but I can’t see us keeping a clean sheet. When we played Bristol at home we took the lead and looked like we would win but their subs came on and completely changed the momentum of the game. So even if we are ahead it’s going to take a big effort to keep Bristol out.
I’m not particularly concerned about the performance from Town tonight, it’s more important to stop the losing run we’re on. The fluency and style of play will come back naturally if we start to pick up points and gain confidence, tonight we just need to but in a shift and try and take something from the game.
great read as always thanks… a tad optimistic re the result tho lol;
That’s a reasonable prediction of the team tonight.
Here’s the thing. The team you’ve predicted isn’t that far away from the team that was winning a few months ago. Hamer for Schofield isn’t a weakening. Schindler for Keogh isn’t much of a weakening given that Schindler wasn’t playing at his best. Hogg for Vallejo is a definite weakening as Hogg was playing as well as I’ve seen him play week after week. Eiting for Bacuna is for a me a strengthening! And Koroma (I confess I didn’t rate but he could score goals) for Aarons is arguably a strengthening too. So there’s 2 conclusions one can reasonably draw:-
1. Hogg is the big miss. Nobody driving the team from the rear of midfield.
2. Form is temporary, class is permanent. We don’t have anyone who is real ‘class’ so we are relying on form and there are too many players not playing anything like as well as they were a few months ago. Pipa, Toffolo & Mbenza to name 3 players who were our main attacking force are definitely all below par.
So fingers crossed that their form returns, Duane Holmes comes in and makes a difference, Hogg returns soon; then maybe we’ll all be a bit more optimistic.
our recordat ashton gate is very poor as is our record against stoke at home so anything will be a bonus but time to stay calm and not overreact but i know thats impossible for some lots will happen before this season is decided but whatever i have no doubts the club has to stick with carlos and his staff and not panic . we have enough of them on social media. utt
What is wrong with Danny Ward????? What a total waste of a signing.
Calf twang. I don’t know if it’s good or bad that it’s a different muscle he’s pulled. He probably won’t be out for long but it’s likely he’ll just pick another injury shortly after he regains fitness.
I agree that really is the only team he can pick tonight it’s a shame really as he doesn’t seem to like picking any of our young players plus won’t throw a new sighing in either, I’m not saying pick them all like he has done before but maybe give one of our young strikers a start or try a back three he can always change if it goes wrong & I also think Holmes should at least be on the bench he’s not going to learn anything sat at home he should be with the squad, I would love them to get a draw tonight but I also think Bristol will be too strong for us in the end, hope I’m wrong