The big day is finally here, Hudddersfiedl Town and Nottingham Forest fight it out for a place in the Premier League at half four today. Both teams have proven themselves to be more than capable over the course of the season and it should be a good game.
Winning individual battles is a big part of how any game is decided and today is no different. Here are a few of the most important matchups in today’s game and how I think they will go.
Lewis O’Brien v James Garner
James Garner has all the expectation that comes with being a Manchester United youth player and clearly has potential to be a great in the future. Currently, I’m less convinced by him. He’s got touches of class about him but in the games I’ve seen him play against Town (including when we played Man United’s U23s in a friendly) he’s looked a bit too raw and indisciplined, mistiming challenges and conceding free kicks too often. In fairness, this assessment is based on a handful of games where my attention has been mainly focussed on Town rather than the opposition.
Lewis O’Brien is an expert at getting fouled, which may sound like an odd thing to excel at but it does mean we get more free kicks in dangerous areas. I expect we’ll see O’Brien trying to drive past Garner at every opportunity and while he’s remarkably good at keeping the ball away from defenders, he’ll leave a dangling leg here and there to draw out fouls.
When Nottingham Forest have the ball, Lewis O’Brien is a vital part of our pressing and depending on the tactics he may be the one tasked with closing down Garner, who likes to build play from the back. O’Brien is a relentless runner and will no doubt do his best to ensure Forest don’t get the chance to settle on the ball and won’t give them a second’s peace.
Harry Toffolo v Djed Spence
Djed Spence has had a superb year at Forest and is fancied by a host of Premier League clubs this summer. But then again, Toffolo hasn’t exactly been awful either. Spence has scored three and assisted four goals this season whereas Toffolo has eight goals and six assists to his name.
Spence is absolutely rapid though and Town will have to decide the best way to play against him. Toffolo could be given a more conservative role where he has to shackle Spence or we could take the game to Forest by having Toffolo push forward and see if we can push Spence back and give him more defensive work to worry about.
I’d rate Harry Toffolo a one of the more intelligent footballers out there and I think he’s capable of adjusting his individual gameplan to suit the situation. If Town are on top he can twist the knife by ghosting forward and popping up in the box but if we’re struggling he knows to sacrifice personal glory to benefit the team and sit in when it’s needed.
Jonathan Hogg v Brennan Johnson
There’s no question that Forest’s biggest threat comes from Brennan Johnson. He’s only 21 but has scored a shed load of goals for Forest this season. He isn’t an out an out striker so will be looking to find pockets of space to exploit in and around the box.
I’ve picked Hogg as the Town player to match up with Johnson because he’s the one that will be responsible for keeping the rest of the team organised and in shape. So, even if Johnson drops into wide areas, Hoggy needs to be doing his usual job of telling everyone else where to be. Town can be very good at dropping into their defensive shape and denying the opposition space in dangerous areas, Hogg is a key player for this as he closes down space well and screams at any other players that don’t match his tenacity.
I won’t be too disappointed if Town gameplan today involves sitting deep, soaking up pressure and looking for chances to counter. It’s not pretty but has been effective for us in other big games this season. If we do play that way then it’s essential we defend aggressively and don’t let players like Brennan Johnson get any room in which to operate.
Jon Russell v Zinckernagel
A good way to stop Town playing is to stop Jon Russell getting time on the ball. In the playoff semi final second leg, Luton had Snodgrass tightly marking Russell and it cut him out of the game almost entirely. That then meant Town got stuck on those endless loops of tapping it around at the back but were rarely being able to “gerrit forrard”.
If Zinckernagel replicates the role Snodgrass played for Luton then Russell will have to think about what he can do to negate this tactic. I’d like to see him be a bit more dynamic with his movement off the ball to get into space, so he’s not so easy to mark out of the game.
When the roles are reversed and Zinckernagel has the ball and Town are defending it’ll be important for Russell to avoid dropping too deep. There’s a risk of shots from distance if we allow the time and space for them to be unleashed, so pushing out and getting into their faces will be essential.
Town fans v Forest fans
Over the last week, social media has been endlessly flooded with Forest fans blathering on about how many tickets they’ve sold. Town haven’t sold out but there are most likely going to be very little difference in the number of each team’s fans in the stadium.
While there’s no prize for selling the most tickets, the fans that make the most noise and offer the most support do give their side a small advantage. It’s marginal, but playoff games often require players to dig deep and find something extra and unwavering support from the stands helps to achieve this.
I know from Town’s big games in recent years, our fans get behind the players in the big moments and will keep singing even in times of adversity. Can the same be said for Forest? I’m not so sure. They’ve been waiting for this chance all these years and I’m sure their support will be excellent if they’re winning but pessimism, frustration and defeatism may creep in if they start to struggle on the pitch. This can quickly translate to the players.
I know that Town’s support won’t question Carlos or the players if they decide the best way to get something from this game is to park the bus. Even if we barely touch the ball, we’ll have complete faith and enjoy the game regardless. I’m less sure Forest fans will be able to keep their nerve if it’s 0-0 after 80 minutes and chances are few. If the fans turn then that frustration can encourage players to try and force things, to freeze up and push too hard.
I might be wrong but I think that our fans are better equipped to deal with the uncertainty of this game. If the game comes down to fine margins then the more relaxed and unwavering support Town fans typically have is more helpful than the slightly desperate and manic nature I’ve observed in the Forest fan base these last few weeks.