The 2-0 victory over Brighton wasn’t just three Premier League points in the bag, it was a great team performance from Town too. The style of play, work-rate, and bravery that Town were famous for last season was back in abundance.
It was wonderful to see Town play with freedom and attacking intent. When Town have played against top opposition this season we’ve often been reluctant to attack too much for fear of being exposed at the back.
This article will try to predict what team David Wagner will pick against Chelsea, the tactics Town will use, and how it’s going to work out for Town.
Which system should Town play to beat Chelsea?
Town were great against Brighton, playing the 4-2-3-1 system that David Wagner has implemented at his time with the club. It might be tempting for him to stick with that shape and keep the same aggressive tactics against Chelsea but I think he’ll resist the temptation.
The 4-0 drubbing at home against Tottenham will be fresh enough in Wagner’s memory to know that going toe-to-toe with the top Premier League clubs can be a quick way to throw away a game. Chelsea might not be in the kind of fluent form Spurs were that day, but they’ll still exploit any weakness they see if Town bomb forward and leave holes at the back.
This is the reason I think Wagner will switch to the 4-5-1 system that we used in the victory over Man United and almost got us a point against City. It might not be as attractive to watch as the other formation, but it’ll give us a solid shape and make us hard to break down.
I’d expect the three central midfielders to sit deep and leave little space between them and the back four. The fullbacks will sit deep, only overlapping the wingers when there’s enough cover behind them to allow it. The wingers will get forward, but they’ll stay wide and be more concerned at gaining yards up the field and taking pressure off the defence rather than being a goal threat.
The lone striker in this system can be a bit, well, lonely. If the midfield sticks to the game plan then the striker is expected to feed off scraps, close down the opposition defence and hold up the ball while he waits for support to arrive.
Predicted lineup
GK: Lössl
Has shrugged off the dip in form he had around the time of the Swansea away game and looks confident and capable. He’s likely to be tested by Chelsea’s forward players, so he should expect a busy night.
LB: Löwe, CB: Schindler, CB: Zanka, RB: Smith
I think the back four that started against Brighton will play again for the Chelsea game. All of them played well and deserve to keep their spot. Wagner likes to keep players fresh, so may rotate fullbacks, but the lack of cover in the centre back position means it’s unlikely there’ll be any change there.
CDM: Hogg, CM: Mooy, CM: Williams
I think Wagner will shift the system back to the one that worked so well against the two Manchester teams at home. Hogg will play deep and mop up where he can, Williams and Mooy will be slightly in front of him but still looking to break up play and spoil Chelsea’s night.
RW: Kachunga, ST: Depoitre, LW: van La Parra
It’s a bit harsh for any player to be dropped after such a good team performance last weekend, but I think Wagner will look to pick the forward players he trusts most to help take pressure off the midfield and defence, so I think Quaner and Ince will drop to the bench.
That means bringing van La Parra straight back in after his suspension, so he can provide the counter-attacking runs up field. Kachunga keeps his place because he’s so disciplined in his positioning and tenacious without the ball (he made five tackles last Saturday).
From the outside, it might seem harsh to drop Mounié after scoring two in his last game, but Depoitre has done very well in games against the top six. He’s more of a grafter and is capable of making things happen when left up top alone. Mounié might be more clinical, but he needs a bit more support from the players around him, which might not be available against Chelsea.
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Match prediction: Town to win 1-0 and Williams to score
At the time of writing you can get 9/1 odds on Town beating Chelsea, but I’m going to pick that result anyway. This team has consistently upset the odds in the last few seasons and this is another chance to prove the bookies wrong.
Town have proven they can defend well as a unit for long periods and we’ve got attacking players capable of carving out chances against the top sides. There probably won’t be many chances for Town to score, so we’ll have to be clinical but if we can nick one we can shut up shop and frustrate the reigning champions.
I’ll pick Danny Williams to be Town scorer. If we play 4-5-1 then Mooy and Williams will be expected to bomb forward to support the attacks when their defensive duties allow them. I think he’s capable of arriving in the box at the right time and getting a shot off, so that’s how I think we’ll score the goal we need to win this game.