Survival maths – What has to happen for Huddersfield Town to stay up?

If Frazier Cambell had scored the glorious chance he had to win the game against Sheffield Wednesday the other night then this blogpost wouldn’t have been written. Instead we could all have accepted that Town were most likely safe and turned our attention to how we can turn things around next season and avoid another relegation scrap.

But, unfortunately, the chance was missed and now I’m spending an unhealthy amount of time looking at the league table and the list of remaining Championship fixtures. To try and make sense of the permutations, I’ve gone through the various possible scenarios to see what has to happen for Town to survive.

Clearly the ambition for Town has to be to get a win or two in our last couple of games and go up without sweating on other teams’ results. In reality it never seems that simple, so below is an, admittedly quite complicated, estimated guide to the possible permutations that Town could face.

If Town don’t score any more points

If Town lose to both West Brom and Millwall in our remaining games then we are going to need other teams to do us a favour. This would be a sad state of affairs but at this point in the season I’d be happy just to see us limp over the line and hope we can make a better fist of it next season.

For Town to survive on their current points total three of the following things have to happen:

• Barnsley get five points or fewer from their remaining three games against Leeds, Forest and Brentford.
• Luton get three points or fewer from playing Hull and Blackburn. (Unless they win a game by a huge margin or Town get battered, then goal difference would become an issue.)
• Hull get three points or fewer from playing Luton and Cardiff.
• Wigan get three points or fewer from playing Charlton and Fulham and receive a 12-point penalty for going into administration.
• Charlton lose both their remaining games against Wigan and Leeds.

Given Luton play Hull and Wigan play Charlton this weekend it’s certain some of the teams below us will drop points (though conversely, some will pick up points). On current form, Barnsley, Hull and Charlton all seem capable of losing their remaining games but obviously that can’t be relied upon.

If Town get one more point

A single additional point may not sound like much but could make all the difference for Town. Grinding out another 0-0 in one of our next two games and losing the other would give us a total points tally of 49 which means to finish above Town…

• Barnsley would either have to get seven points from their remaining three games (including getting something against Leeds tonight) or win two out of three and overturn the five goal deficit in goal difference.
• Luton would need to win both their remaining games or get four points and overturn a 14 goal deficit in goal difference over Town.
• Hull would need to win both their remaining games or get four points and overturn a 14 goal deficit in goal difference over Town.
• Wigan would need to get four points or more from their remaining two games.
• Charlton would need two points or more, so two draws or a win would put them above Town.

A single point puts Town in a much stronger position and the teams below us will need to put combinations of results together. Barnsley are very unlikely to get seven points, so we most likely wouldn’t have to worry about them.

If there are outright winners in the two games involving the other four relegation candidates this weekend then the losing teams from both those fixtures wouldn’t be able to catch Town if we get to 49 points. So draws would be the worst outcome in those games for Town if we also manage to get a draw against West Brom, as it would mean the four teams below us could still catch us up on the last day’s games.

If Town get two points from their remaining games

Two draws in our next two games would get Huddersfield Town to the much talked about 50 points mark and we could feel confident that we would most likely be safe.

Hull, Luton, Barnsley and Wigan would have to win all their remaining games. But Luton and Hull play each other, so one of those teams would be certain to finish on lower than 50 points. Barnsley’s remaining games look far too tricky for them to notch three wins, so that just leaves one relegation spot left. If Wigan beat Charlton then that leaves them needing a win against Leeds in their last game to get to 50 points.

So two points would leave the possibility of Town being caught but it would require combinations of results which are pretty unlikely.

If Town get three points from their remaining games

While it’s not mathematically true that we would be safe on 51 points, it would take such a freakish turn of events that it’s all but certain one more win will see us safe in the Championship.

It would not just require the four teams below us and Wigan (after their points deduction) to have almost perfectly anti-Town results but the three teams above us on 50 points would also all have to get positive results too.

I may regret saying this, but I think it’s almost impossible for Town to get relegated on 51 points this season.

If Huddersfield Town get six or four points from their remaining games

We’re fine regardless of other results if we can get four points or more. We can also go into next season feeling positive that we got the results we needed in a high pressure situation.

This outcome isn’t particularly likely, given West Brom are chasing automatic promotion and Millwall a place in the playoffs. But… this is Huddersfield Town and there’s always the possibility of the unexpected.

PLEASE NOTE: I think all of the above is correct but I may have made errors somewhere along the line. Please let me know in the comments if I’ve missed out anything important or got something wrong.