Wins are always happy occasions, even if you have to win ugly, it’s always nice to take three points. Defeats are never nice, even if you play well and lose valiantly, you’ve still tasted failure and that’s hard to take. Draws are awkward though as you have to make up a story to go along with the point that you take away from the game.
So some Town fans will have come away from the game against Swansea feeling happy about a battling performance where our injury ravaged side took a point from one of the league’s better teams and “on another day” (Fotheringham’s favourite post-match line) we could have taken all three. But other Town fans will have walked out of the stadium feeling frustrated at our lack of ambition and cutting edge in the final third, bemoaning how readily we allowed the away team to dominate possession on our home turf.
Those readers that think I’m too much of a happy clapper won’t be surprised to read that I’m in the former camp, and am quite happy with the point that Town earned against the Swans. Obviously there are huge problems in front of goal but the clean sheet was well deserved and the better chances in the game fell to Town, so for once Fotheringham’s “on another day” line actually rings true.
Here are a few more of my thoughts on the game…
Rope-a-dope – Town were too passive in the first half
The possession stats midway through the first half read 72/25 in Swansea’s favour, as they completely dominated the ball and starved us of both possession and territory. While I fully expected to see Swansea have a lot of the ball in this game, and talked about that in my preview article, this level of domination was too much and the game was less of a contest and more like a training exercise.
Swansea’s possession wasn’t really the problem though, it was what Town were doing when they won the ball back, which was giving it straight back to our opponents. Inviting possession-based teams on to you is a fair tactic if you plan to counter-attack them but our attackers didn’t have the skill or speed to exploit the spaces available and our defenders weren’t picking them out with accurate long balls when they got on the ball. So instead the ball just kept coming back at us, time after time.
I will say that Town did a good job of keeping their shape during this period of complete Swansea domination and that most of the time we managed to force them into making errors in the build up rather than ending attacks with decent chances. We stuck to our task and mostly didn’t allow them to get close enough to Lee Nicholl’s goal for them to develop decent goal-scoring opportunities. It’s just that we could have relieved the pressure on our defenders if we’d counter-attacked a bit more often and had a bit more time on the ball ourselves.
A terrier-like second half led to an improvement for Town
There was a quite obvious change in approach in the second half from Town which opened up the game and most likely meant we risked conceding a goal more but equally increased our own chances of scoring considerably as we showed a much more aggressive attitude after being far too passive in the first half.
The midfield and attack all pressed higher up the field and forced more mistakes from Swansea and also managed to build up more attacks in open play. In the first half Town only really looked a threat from set pieces. It wasn’t perfect from Town in the second half but it was nice to see us at least trying to take the game to Swansea more and putting more pressure on the ball.
I can’t help but wonder what kind of shape we’d be in if Mark Fotheringham had taken over straight after the playoff final – as it’s clear that he wants his team to be incredibly fit and play a high-pressing and aggressive type of football but hasnt had a squad fit enough to do it for 90 minutes yet. Slowly the fitness levels are improving and the style of play is progressing towards this but if he’d had a full preseason and been in place from the start we’dbe there already. The World Cup break gives him a bit of time to focus on this though, so that might be a chance to see some progress in this area.
Missed chances cost Town
I know xG makes some fans purple with rage, so if you’re one of those people, look away now! Town had an xG of 1.12 in this game, considerably more than Swansea’s 0.6. For those not sure what xG is, every chance is given a decimal number which represents its likelihood of being a goal and a team’s chances are all added up to give their total. Our best chance was when Helik latched on to Thomas’ free kick in the first half but could finish, which was rated at 0.53, in other words a 53% chance of scoring. Danny Ward’s chance towards the end was given a 0.23 chance of a goal, so not as easy from the statto’s perspective as it seemed it real time but still around a one in four chance of going in.
The problem is that Town aren’t taking their chances often enough in games and it’s taking freak goals like Nakayama’s cross/shot and Ruffels’ overhead wonder-strike for us to get on the score sheet. While set pieces have provided us a more conventional goal threat, we look otherwise toothless at the moment.
Injuries haven’t helped with the lack of goals but then again, Anjorin is the only forward that’s currently injured that I’d consider a likely starter. The bigger issue is that we don’t play with enough freedom to crack open opposition defences and that’s more down to the whole team’s way of playing rather than individual players.
The Championship table is weird
Town’s points per game would be good enough to keep them out of the relegation zone in the Premier League, League One, League Two, the National League and the National League North. They’ve got 19 points from 20 games, so just shy of a point a game (0.95ppg for maths fans). All the other professional leagues in England have teams with a lower points per game in their relegation zone but, as the subheading above says, the Championship table is weird.
It’s not just the bottom end of our table that is odd, the whole of the Championship is strange, no team is pulling away at the top end, so it’s just one big midtable battle this season from the top to the bottom. Which means you can pull out all sorts of strange stats. Like West Brom being sat in 21st but have only conceded one more goal than Burnley who sit top, and they’ve only lost seven games whereas Blackburn sit in third place and have lost eight.
Back to Town, they are rock bottom despite picking up some improved results lately. I am hopeful that this strange situation with the table can’t last all season – eventually the better teams in the league will pull away at the top and the weaker teams will fall away at the bottom. Town’s job will be to make sure they are not one of those teams that fall away.
This might seem bonkers in a few months time but things are so congested that we’re only 12 points off the playoffs, so a good run of games could see us put aside our relegation fears and dreaming of promotion again. Crazy talk while we’re currently unable to score from open play but thing can change fast and I find it very hard to know what to make of this season’s team. Yes, we look bad at times but also show sparks that hint toward there being more there too.
It’s vital that Fotheringham makes good use of the World Cup break
I’ve referenced it already but this break is make or break for the rest of Town’s season. It could be a mini preseason where we recover a handful of key players from injury, improve the fitness levels of those already playing, do some team building to boost morale, get some heavy tactical work done on the training pitch and go into the next phase of the season flying. That will be the hope.
It’s not certain to go that way though. Mark Fotheringham promised fans at the recent Q&A that the training camp would be so grueling that players would be sick on the training pitch due to the workload he planned to put them through. While I admire the ambition to get our squad into tip top shape, it’s also possible this approach could both lead to further injuries in the squad and also spread discord among the squad. Fotheringham has made it clear he’s not here to win friends but his abrasive personality could risk “losing the dressing room” if he pushes things too far.
I think Fozzy Bear has actually improved quite a lot lately after a fairly bumpy settling in period. His lack of media training and experience showed in his first few weeks but he seems to be getting into the swing of things more as time goes by. The best thing has been that he’s made Town hard to beat in the last month or so and cut out most of the sloppy errors. The next task will be to add a bit of attacking flair, which I hope he’ll focus on during the world cup break.
Personally I like Fozzy and yes I agree he is learning at the sharp end but I can’t help but think he is more cuddly with the players than the impression he gives in interviews.
I know supporters have been begging for a striker since the Big Bang but goals win matches. So many injuries but Fozzy has stopped the rot in defence despite relying on the youngsters.
Simpson may come in and stay fit for the rest of the season and score for fun but it’s a heavy burden to put on him. He needs a back up and it’s great that we have two senior mentors but one would do, so room to add another young striker must be a priority in Jan. Hopefully one will come good and with our budget it will be another younger player from a lower division but that’s fine by me. Thoughts ?
You’re probably right about him being more cuddly behind the scenes. I’m fairly sure I saw him literally kiss a player before he subbed him on a few games ago, which would get you in hot water with HR in most other industries!
Shipping out one of Ward or Rhodes would make sense if we can find someone to take on their (fairly hefty) wages. Simpson seems like he’s quick and strong so I’d like a proper target man striker as another option. It feels like a long time since we’ve had one and other teams do well with them. Is Alan Lee available?
This talk of of relying Simpson to make a massive difference up front worries me. How long to get him fit enough to start! Then how long to get him match fit? How long to get him clued up about the service he will have to make use of (hopefully not as long as it is taking Ward or Rhodes – but he hasn’t got their experience so who knows). How long before we work out exactly how good he is? It’s possible he’s not much better than Phillips or Harrat for example. And then how long before he is confident enough to relish and thrive in the higher level he is being asked to perform at? Realistically if he starts next season in good Nick we’ve been lucky.
In January, we need more than just Simpson to help us out up front.
I tend to agree Peter, Fotheringham does seem to be getting something right, although there is an awful long way to go, particularly with the limited resources at his disposal.
Defending in numbers against a side like Swansea is understandable, but given those circumstances it was pretty obvious – certainly for most of the first half – just how ‘limited’ we are as an attacking force. On the few occasions we did manage to ‘get at them’ we had very few , if any, bodies in the opposing penalty box. It was frustrating to see Sorba Thomas putting in crosses effectively to ‘nobody’ or at best a totally outnumbered Rhodes.
In that regard I do wonder why Fotheringham doesn’t make changes at half time rather than waiting until the hour mark, or later. (He’s not the only manager who tends to do this ).
It’s easy from the stands and with hindsight I guess, but I think I’d have been telling Rhodes that he was coming off at half time and to give it everything for 45 minutes. Putting Ward on then, along with Holmes – who I think is better as an ‘impact sub’, and Diarra who both are fairly effective running at the opposition, just might have been more productive.
As regards Simpson, like you Peter, I feel we may be in danger of expecting too much. As far as I am aware he’s not played at Championship level. If and when he is fit, coming in to a struggling side to ‘score goals’ is a big ask.
I would be delighted to be proved wrong of course.
That made for the most miserable of viewings, I was surprised that I and most of the crowd managed restraint during the boredom, given ample opportunities to voice displeasure. I would have been much happier to be forewarned about the negativity and total lack of ambition on offer, given the game a miss, before celebrating the point gained at around 1700.
As it was the players sat deep en masse and it pretty much stayed that way all game, there was no outlet to speak of as that’s not Rhodes’ game, in fact what is his game these days? Their front players frequently dropped into acres of space to infuriatingly collect the ball then recycle; Ward was marginally better having walloped two late shots straight at defenders, yet again the defensively inept Holmes gave the ball away or lost it on the edge of our penalty area fortunately for him and us they failed to capitalize.
We were defensively strong, but not perfect, frankly lucky not to concede, unfortunately Lees illness didn’t free up enough free time to practice his passing. Helik missed a sitter, Thomas put in a few decent dead ball crosses, but between times was ineffective. Diarra injected some enthusiasm during the latter stages, although a pass to one of two well placed colleague’s rather than a shot at the death, may have borne fruit.
Encouragingly 11 teams have accrued fewer points than us over the last 5 games.
I listened to the commentary – Oggie and Matt Glennon did their best to inject some excitement and optimism but didn’t fool anyone. Thank God I wasn’t there.
A point a game would see Town relegated so if we don’t find a way to win some matches against better opposition (and every team is better – we’re bottom of the bloody league!) then we’re doomed. A ‘park the bus’ formation, particularly when you’re playing at home, won’f win the hearts & minds of the current supporters nor bring in any new ones.
I went. I enjoyed it. There’s no shame in being good at defending. Every player gave their all for the shirt today. If Helik connects with Sorba’s perfect free kick or Ward’s shots aren’t saved or cleared off the line then everyone would be saying that MF gave a tactical masterclass. I don’t want to watch that every week, but Swansea were always going to come and dominate.
So much upturn in fitness and fight. Just need to add that creativity and cutting edge.
Well said. A realistic assessment of where we are. Who really went to Saturdays game expecting anything else? Certainly not me and Terrier Spirit. Quality recruitment essential before we can even legitimately criticise the Managers selection and substitutions.
Why can’t we pass? Apart from the sideways and backwards stuff, we’ve not been much good for years. Almost every opponent seems to be calmer on the ball and finds one of his own team most of the time. Even if you watch lower leagues, they all seem to be better passers than us. The other thing is breakaways. If you watch Man City or Liverpool, when they breakaway half the team go forward into the opposing penalty area. We tend to have just 1 outnumbered man who has to wait for support or go it alone. Of course the reason why we leave a lot of men back is that we are likely to lose the ball when attacking and are then wide open to the counter attack but if we had players who could hold the ball or pass to a colleague, then this wouldn’t be a problem. Finally, 11 men behind the ball is a recipe for disaster in any match as everyone knows that if you don’t have anyone upfield then the ball comes straight back, which it did on Saturday. Only luck and Nicolls kept us in the match. If he is injured or leaves in January, this season and our time in the Championship is over.
I’m impressed by the likes of Jay, Gavin & TS who seem very accepting of the horrors that we’ve been subjected to in recent times. I’m more in the Beck Lane & Scrooge camp. The cup is half empty, not half full; indeed the cup is barely a quarter full. Scrooge is right – some good luck and a few great saves from Nicholls have got Town 4 points this week when, if football was fair, we would have no cause to complain if we’d got zero.
The Town team reminds me a lot of the present Tory government – you can keep shuffling the pack but it’s still the same old names who just don’t cut it. The best hope is to pass Rhodes on to Ipswich as has been widely reported, free up some wages; same with Ward if there were any takers; bring in a couple of much younger strikers in January.
Appreciate all your thoughts, TS, and largely agree w/ the miniscule degree of optimism. so count me as another willing to “accept the horrors we’ve been subjected to”:)
Nonetheless, while you wondered “what kind of shape we’d be in if Mark Fotheringham had taken over straight after the playoff final,” I wonder what might have happened if Carlos had stayed. (Granted, now that we know Hoyle is selling, whatever was on CC’s wish list was surely not in the cards.) All Town fans must be keenly aware of West Brom’s 3-game win streak and move off the bottom of the table once Carlos replaced the novelist. But MF seems not to be such a bad choice, and with the defense shored up (seems like Mbete is starting to turn the corner), I do see us moving up also, if not quite as high.
Any news on when Jones may be back? I still think that he and Diarra are our hopes, short of a new striker, for helping us to generate some of the goal-scoring opportunities we sorely lack at the moment.
I agree – it’s the likes of Diarra and Jones, plus I’d add Anjorin, players who can run at defenders with the ball, who are the most likely players in the current squad to open up defences in open play. If Sorba could find it in him to cross a decent ball other than from a set play, there are one or two goal threats to work with. Running at pace with the ball was O’Brien’s great threat; he won so many free kicks as a consequence; and then step up, Sorba.
Include Rudoni as an attacking threat. He has a lovely left foot but suffers from O’Brienitis – he just can’t get his shots on target. Over these next few weeks, I hope he just hits shots and more shots in training.
Without an attacking threat, the second half of the season looks bleak.