Long time readers of this blog will know that my prediction are iffy at best, so the sheer audacity of making a league table prediction before a ball has been kicked on the new Championship season is really something. However, everyone is making their predictions, so I thought I might as well join in. If nothing else, I quite like setting myself a reminder for May next year to have a look at just how wrong I got it. Though, in May 2024, it’s quite possible there may be a few Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday and QPR fans that also pop up in my notifications to point out just how wrong I got it (unless I’m right of course).
I should probably suggest that any stray fans of non-Huddersfield Town teams shouldn’t get too upset or excited by my uninformed opinions, but where’s the fun in that? Instead, I’ll say that these predictions are actually incredibly important and if I’ve suggested your team might perform under your expectation then it’s probably a disaster for your club and you should definitely get very worked up about it.
If you want to get involved in the comments, feel free but please be polite.
Automatic promotion
- Leicester
- Middlesbrough
It’s not very exciting to predict Leicester winning the title but it’s also not very exciting to be wrong either, so I’m going to go with the most obvious choice to top the table. While relegation hangovers can be nasty (see my relegation prediction), it looks to me like Leicester have made smart additions to their team and are looking to bounce back and stay back in the Premier League. The Championship is a long and hard campaign though, so even with a squad that looks strong on paper, I’m not 100% confident in this prediction.
Middlesbrough were one of last season’s better teams, particularly once Michael Carrick took over and I liked the way they tried to play the game too. They were a bit unlucky to be edged out by Luton in the playoff semi-final and I think that experience will make them want to go one better this time and go up via the automatic slots.
Playoffs
- Southampton
- Norwich
- West Brom
- Coventry
There’s a bit of an ex-Huddersfield Town manager feel to my playoff sport predictions, with three out of the four teams having former Town managers at the helm (Corberan at WBA, Wagner at Norwich and Robins at Coventry). The remaining team are relegated Premier League team Southampton, who have tippy-tappy football specialist Russell Martin taking over and looking to take the project he developed at Swansea and apply it with a bigger budget and better players – which I think will lead to better results and hopefully less dull football.
I think Wagner will manage to get a tune out of his Norwich team now he’s had a full preseason with them and will get them playing the way he likes. His way of playing football is a bit one-dimensional but I think it’s good enough to get the better of teams at this level, particularly with the talent he has in that Norwich squad.
Carlos Corberan is probably a cleverer coach but is working under trickier circumstances, with iffy ownership at West Brom hampering his ability to build the team he wants despite having some talent in the squad that he inherited. If Carlos hangs around at West Brom, I think they’ve got a really good chance of going up, because he’s able to get the best out of limited resources. But I also think loyalty isn’t his strong suit and he’s most likely already looking for better offers now it’s clear West Brom’s owners aren’t willing to give him significant backing in the transfer market. (Though after writing this paragraph they just announced Josh Maja, so they have some budget for wages at least.)
Coventry’s challenge this season will be to replace the goals Gyokeres provided last season that landed them in the playoffs. I think they can repeat that feat but that’s assuming Ellis Simms is a good enough replacement up front.
Mid-table mediocrity
- Birmingham
- Sunderland
- Millwall
- Cardiff City
- Huddersfield Town
- Ipswich
- Preston North End
- Bristol City
- Stoke
- Watford
I’m basing my Huddersfield Town prediction on our likely recruitment of two to three first-team quality signings either through the loan market or as permanent signings. We’ve freed up the wage budget already by moving on frings players and made it clear we’re in the market for some key additions but haven’t yet brought them in. Assuming these vacancies are filled, I think we can have a mild improvement on last season and become a middle of the road Championship team. This isn’t what we should aspire for as a long term, year-after-year goal, but I think it would be perfectly acceptable for this transitional year while we adjust to new ownership, bed in a new management structure and find a long-term successor to Neil Warnock to bring in at the end of the season.
If Town fail to make those meaningful additions to their squad before the transfer deadline then I think you could probably knock them down from eleventh to something like eighteenth, flirting with relegation again but most likely just safe. On the other hand, if we get our recruitment spot on or we have a couple of academy kids set the league alight (Diara or Jones being the most likely candidates) we could make a playoff push. Realistically, I think mid-table mediocrity would be an achievement with the modest squad and limited budget we’re forced to operate on this season.
Everyone else in this stodgy middle of the Championship is fairly unexceptional. I’ve been a bit harsh on Watford but they always seem a bit chaotic and that could bite them this season. The revolving door of managers doesn’t help with stability and I think that could lead to them dropping down the league a bit.
On the other hand, I think I’ve been pretty generous with my prediction for Birmingham compared to others, mostly because they seem to have been quite active in the transfer market and it’s possible those new additions could gel together and help them push up the league.
Stoke are a continuous mystery to me, I don’t understand how they keep on having a good squad of players and decent managers and still turn them into a team that can’t challenge at the top end of the Championship. I’ve not studied them in detail but they seem like a team that should be pushing for automatic promotion most season yet end up stuck in mid-table every year. I’m guessing they’ll do the same again this year.
17 -21 Scraping survival
- Plymouth
- Blackburn
- Hull
- Rotherham
- Swansea
I think Plymouth will do pretty well. The momentum from promotion will help them to begin with and having a good manager will also count for a few points along the way too. The fact they’re operating on a much lower budget that most of the league will be hard to overcome though and they may find results hard to come by at times. Regardless, I think they’ll be safe and that’s a good achievement in their first season back at this level.
Blackburn were pushing for promotion last season but they are operating under tight financial controls at the moment and there have been rumblings that their manager might walk because of a lack of investment, so I think they might struggle. I’ve heard similar rumblings of off-the-field issues at Hull which could make this season tough for them.
Rotherham are always in and amongst the teams at the bottom end of things but I think they’ll be OK because they’re organised and play with good team spirit. That can be enough in a relegation scrap.
Swansea have been a decent team in the Championship for a number of years but I think a lot of that has been down to the manager. They’ve brought in Michael Duff from Barnsley, who’s another highly rated manager. However, my hunch is that Swansea have been overachieving for a while and this season will see them fall back regardless of who’s in charge.
22-24 Going down
- Leeds
- Sheffield Wednesday
- QPR
Leeds are widely tipped to do well this season and bounce straight back to the Premier League but I have a feeling that the opposite might be true and they might do a double drop all the way to League One. The way they turned to Big Sam to save them last season reeked of a club out of ideas and desperate to try anything. Their fans seem very positive about the takeover that’s just taken place but I’m not completely convinced that won’t turn sour, as every new owner comes in making big promises and leaves behind a trail of destruction and tear-soaked Leeds shirts. Besides, they’ve let a lot of their best players go out on loan, their manager looks like Stephen Hendry after he’s been given some bad news and the Championship doesn’t currently award bonus points for taking the most away fans to games, so they haven’t even got that to fall back upon.
I’m not sure what to expect with Sheffield Wednesday but I’ve put them in the bottom three mostly because of fears there could be some issues behind the scenes that haven’t yet fully come to light. It seemed so odd to get rid of a manager that had just delivered promotion and I suspect there’s a story behind the scenes at the club that we’ve not yet heard. I also think they aren’t as good as their fans think they are. Yes, they got a lot of points in League One last season but they were very lucky to even make it to the playoff final after getting spanked in the first leg of the semi. It’s not easy to establish yourself back in the Championship, even if you think you’re a “massive club”.
And I’m putting QPR last mostly because of that horrendous friendly results they had at the weekend. They lost 5-0 to Oxford, and while everyone says friendly results don’t matter, they do a bit when it’s by such a large margin to a team in the league below you. Add to that the fact they were pretty awful at the end of last season too and Gareth Ainsworth doesn’t seem to be able to get a tune of his team, it looks like they’re in for a difficult start.
- Leicester
- Middlesbrough
- Southampton
- Norwich
- West Brom
- Coventry
- Birmingham
- Sunderland
- Millwall
- Cardiff City
- Huddersfield Town
- Ipswich in
- Preston North End
- Bristol City
- Stoke
- Watford
- Plymouth
- Blackburn
- Hull
- Rotherham
- Swansea
- Leeds
- Sheffield Wednesday
- QPR
May I suggest that you review your homework in mid-September around the time of the first international break? By that time, the transfer window will have closed so we’ll then see the true state of the squads, plus teams will have played half-a-dozen ‘real’ matches so there’ll be something concrete on which to base your predictions. But that probably takes all the fun out of it!
My guess is that if Town were indeed to achieve a mid-table finish and get a cherry on the cake that sees Leeds relegated, right now most Town fans would bite your hand off.
I am a Leeds fan who lives in Huddersfield. I want Town to do well for the area and especially after a shocking majority of a season with Fotheringham. Warnock was a breath of fresh air and performed a miracle, you should finish top half and have a good season. I even liked reading your articles, but this is just totally way off the mark about Leeds and feels like you’re just having a dig.
We were shocking last season but the rebuild has started. Finish 22nd, come on mate – at least the top 10 is achievable.
– We have kept some of our better players from last season (Sinisterra, Rutter, Struijk, Meslier, Summerville, Gnonto (Harrison, Adams injured)) and have an abundance of loan players coming back from loan (Shackleton, Povedo, Cresswell, Gelhardt, Hjelde, James, Drameh) who did very well in the Championship (some even won promotion).
– We have got rid of the players who didn’t perform (McKennie, Aaronson, Lorente, Roca).
– We have a manager who has won the Championship title twice in the last 5 years. (Yes, Warnock is the King of the Championship, however he has not been promoted since 2018 with a heavy transfer budget at Cardiff).
– We have a new owner as part of an enterprise with the San Francisco 49ers.
– We have hired Newcastle United’s Former Consultant of Football Neil Hammond who didn’t do so bad with his transfers in Jan 22.
– We have Parachute Payments due to us.
– We have paid £7 Million for Ethan Ampadu who is a great addition to the squad.
– We have bought a Premiership Keeper as backup or potential Number 1 (Darlow from Newcastle).
Come on, ignore your obvious issue with Leeds. Also, your statement “as every new owner comes in making big promises and leaves behind a trail of destruction and tear-soaked Leeds shirts.” What about your team with a new owner who made lots of big promises in his first Press Conference? Interested to see if Nagle delivers on his plan for the club including investigating options around the stadium. Always a promise that a Town Chairman makes, and the area still ends up with a Costa and an Odeon.
Maybe it was clickbait? I can’t see you going down either.
I’d be so happy with anything from 11th up for Town, TS.
My Leicester-supporting mates are all very concerned, as are the couple of Norwich fans I know – I’m not enough of a football geek to go through and give a 1 to 24 table, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Plymouth or Ipswich surprised a few people and made the top six.
Three days to go until the most bonkers league kicks off again. Can’t wait.
I live in Suffolk, midway between Norwich and Ipswich, so every football fan in these parts supports one or the other. I can tell you that my perception is that it’s Ipswich who are the chirpiest, even to the point of cocky. They have an owner who has injected loads of money; they spend real money (you’re talking multi-million pound purchases) on bringing in players; this is unheard of in the Championship unless you’re fresh out of the Premier League, not coming up from Division 1. One of my friends, who supports Ipswich, sent me a league table which I think was for the last 15 games of last season for ALL league teams right across Europe. On that basis, Ipswich were top. I think it was something like 14 wins and 1 draw. When you’ve finished a season getting promoted with form like that, well you must go into the new season with a lot of confidence. So you’re right, Jay, Ipswich is a team to watch out for this season.
As for Norwich, I have friends who are Norwich fans and none of them seem to have the enthusiasm for Wagner as we did at Huddersfield. They’re not anti-Wagner but I think he’ll quickly come under pressure if Norwich don’t get off to a good start.
Like you, I don’t see Leeds being anywhere near relegation.
My hope is that Town go to Plymouth on Saturday and get on the front foot and show Plymouth that the Championship is a step up from Div 1. An early 3 points would be a confidence booster given the difficult fixtures that follow.
Just coming back to the American owners of both Town and Leeds. You cannot assess Americans with British values. One thing rules in America, the dollar. The bottom line is all that matters and for them short term gains and profits count above everything. Nothing emanating from Nagle up to now has given me any confidence in him investing in the club. A big thing about the sale was than he did it in 10 days without any due diligence so it must have been cheap. At that time we could have ended in any league and the worrying thing was it did not seem to matter to him whether it was the Championship or League 1 showing he has/had no idea (or didn’t care!) how English football works and the difference in the two leagues. He obviously bought it for a song in a fire sale with the previous owner writing off his (substantial!) loans leaving only a couple of million owing to the bank. This has already recouped that in player sales. His PR attempts, going to a fish shop (and ordering chicken!) and buying up a few medals to get the fans onside would have been OK if he had also invested in players. But he hasn’t. hiding behind some budget that Hoyle is supposed to have set. No he is here to make money, not spend it. He has probably been led up the garden path a bit by Warnock who will have promised success with the existing squad. Hopefully that proves to be correct but having lost about 10 players and signed 1 permanently it’s not looking good. For the sake of our club and the supporters I would like to be totally wrong about Nagle. In 4 weeks the transfer window closes and we’ll have out answer.
Well argued for sure. But if Warnock was telling it right today, Town were in the running for 2 signings but, for whatever reason, the players decided not to come. Nagle can’t be blamed for that. There was no suggestion from Warnock that the Town offer was insufficient. Admittedly we’ve no idea of the quality of player.
As you say, let’s see where we are in 4 weeks.
It’s not the offer to buy which may be too low but it could be that players of any quality want bigger wages and the buck for that stops at Nagle. When you consider Towns wage bill is £9.5M and Leicesters is £62.5M you can see we are operating at a different level. Incidentally, if the proposed signings were Junior Hoilett and Jack Hunt then I’m pleased we failed.
It’s not a realistic comparison – a struggling side that’s been in the Championship for a number of years versus a team just relegated from the Premier League with a parachute payment. We know that happens and we can say ‘it’s not fair’ but them’s the rules.
I do agree with you about Hoikett & Hunt.
You have certainly been bold with your relegation selections! As an Argyle fan, as long as our name isn’t in your bottom three, that’s great by me!
To be fair, I believe that Leeds will be one of the teams pushing at the top end, and be nowhere near the exit, but I would like to see your prediction come true!
Argyle love Neil Warnock for obvious reasons, but today, they will be wishing he will come unstuck, with Argye taking all three points.
Good luck for the rest of the season however!